Vietnam is likely to see strong credit expansion in the near term, although banks may face risks from potential market corrections, Fitch Ratings said.
The agency noted in a 28 January 2026 report that credit growth accelerated to 19.1% in 2025, up from 15.1% in 2024, pushing total credit in the economy to around 145% of GDP by the end of 2025.
Fitch cautioned that while rapid credit expansion can support economic activity in the short run, it may also channel funds into lower-return or speculative ventures. Such trends could inflate asset prices and increase the likelihood of a correction later, which may negatively affect banks, investments, and broader economic growth.
Vietnam’s central bank has set a lower credit growth target of 15% for 2026, compared with the 2025 outcome.
In a separate report released in November 2025, Moody’s Ratings said banks may turn to higher bond issuance to meet lending demand. Increased reliance on this type of funding could heighten refinancing risks. Moody’s added that banks are likely to depend more on market funding that is sensitive to investor confidence, while their relatively limited stock of high-quality liquid assets offers only modest liquidity protection.
Fitch also highlighted trade-related risks for Vietnam in 2026, noting that the country faces greater enforcement scrutiny due to its position within/compiler between US and China supply chains.
The agency expects rising effective US tariff rates on Vietnamese imports to gradually slow export growth, despite recent resilience supported by strong US demand and tariff exemptions for electronics shipments. Goods suspected of being transshipped through Vietnam or containing significant Chinese components could face additional US tariffs of up to 40%, Fitch said.
Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings indicated in a late-2025 report that smaller private banks are the most exposed to economic pressures stemming from trade uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
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