When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago, then-U.S. President Joe Biden firmly supported Kyiv. He built a coalition of European allies and tasked veteran advisers with isolating Moscow economically and diplomatically.
However, Washington’s strategy shifted dramatically after the initial meeting between U.S. and Russian negotiators on Tuesday.
This meeting occurred just a month after Donald Trump returned to the White House. During this time, Ukraine and NATO partners were sidelined by Trump’s relatively inexperienced team, which granted concessions to Putin even before negotiations began.
Trump’s eagerness to end Russia’s war in Ukraine has raised concerns about a potential peace deal that could undermine Kyiv and threaten European security, altering the geopolitical landscape.
“The really worrying fact is that Trump has taken Russia from pariah to prize partner in the time span of just a few days. That comes at a price,” said Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration.
The talks in Riyadh marked the first U.S.-Russia discussions about the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War Two. They resulted in an agreement to form negotiating teams for future meetings and to restore normal diplomatic relations, indicating a thaw in long-frozen ties.
Before the talks, European politicians accused Trump of giving away concessions to Moscow by ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine. They also criticized his assertion that Kyiv’s hope of reclaiming 20% of its territory under Russian control was an illusion. Some observers condemned Trump for what they perceived as appeasement.
KEY FIGURES LEFT OUT
Ukraine’s exclusion from the meeting represented a significant departure from Biden and NATO’s principle of “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.” Kyiv has stated it will not accept any deal imposed without its consent.
Additionally, the lack of European representatives heightened concerns among U.S. allies about whether Trump might concede too much to Putin without receiving anything substantial in return.
This apprehension prompted European governments to discuss the possibility of contributing peacekeepers to support any agreement on Ukraine.
Trump indicated he would not oppose such a deployment, but Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Moscow would not accept NATO troops, suggesting resistance to any major compromise.
The meeting featured Lavrov and Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov, both seasoned negotiators with a combined 34 years in their roles. They faced off against three Trump aides—Secretary of State Marco Rubio, national security adviser Mike Waltz, and Trump envoy Steve Witkoff—who were in their first month on the job.
Timothy Snyder, a Yale University professor and Russia expert, noted, “The American team has almost no experience in high-level international negotiation, no regional expertise on Ukraine and Russia, and no relevant foreign language knowledge.” He contrasted this with the extensive experience of the Russian officials.
Bruen characterized the situation as “amateur hour” for Trump’s national security team.
A Trump administration official argued that lasting peace could not be achieved through the same disengagement that has allowed the conflict in Ukraine to persist.
“President Trump has built a strong team that is already demonstrating his peace through strength agenda in action,” said Brian Hughes, spokesman for the White House National Security Council.
After the talks, Trump expressed increased confidence and indicated he would likely meet with Putin before the end of the month. He has previously praised Putin and commended his conciliatory attitude following their phone call last week.
“Russia wants to do something,” Trump told reporters in Palm Beach, Florida, on Tuesday. He dismissed Ukraine’s concerns about being excluded from the meeting, suggesting that Kyiv should have engaged in talks much earlier.
Rubio stated that no one was being excluded, emphasizing that any solution must be acceptable to all parties, but there was no immediate information on how Ukraine could be included in future discussions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy postponed a planned visit to Saudi Arabia to avoid legitimizing the U.S.-Russia talks.
He faced criticism from the Trump administration after stating that a draft minerals deal with Washington lacked necessary security provisions for Kyiv.
Three sources reported that the U.S. proposed taking ownership of 50% of Ukraine’s critical minerals, which some Trump critics likened to extortion in exchange for essential U.S. military aid.
RUSSIA CLAIMED THE FIRST VICTORY
Emma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank, suggested that the Trump administration might have been justified in keeping the talks limited for now.
“It’s certainly not ideal that Ukraine was not in the room, though I believe they’ll be at future such meetings,” she said. “But the administration is probably right that including a variety of European partners in the room might make for too many voices and make any progress more difficult.”
Still, Democrat Jake Auchincloss, co-chair of the House of Representatives’ Ukraine caucus, stated that Russia had won round one.
“The Kremlin has been normalized in bilateral diplomacy that excludes Ukraine and NATO, and they gave up nothing to get that,” he told Reuters.
Three Western intelligence officials informed Reuters that they have seen no new evidence indicating a change in Putin’s goals. They believe he aims to retain all territory his forces have captured, with the long-term objective of expanding his influence in Europe.
“Putin will not stop at Ukraine,” Darius Jauniškis, director of Lithuania’s State Security Department, told Reuters. “Is there a sincere desire to end the war? I don’t think so.”
Roger Wicker, a fellow Republican and chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, concurred that Putin could not be trusted in negotiations over Ukraine.
“Putin is a war criminal,” Wicker told CNN.
When asked about Trump’s assertion that he believes Putin wants peace, Wicker added, “What we can trust the Russians to do is to do anything to their advantage, to take temporary steps.”
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