Fresh disruptions to Persian Gulf oil exports could sustain upward pressure on crude prices in the short term, Goldman Sachs reported in a Tuesday note, warning that any subsequent recovery in flows could prove slower and more uncertain than the initial rebound even if geopolitical tensions subside.
The bank estimates that Gulf exports previously recovered to over 80% of pre-war levels following a U.S.-Iran MoU in June. However, fresh tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz dragged flows back down below 50%, or roughly 11 million barrels per day, over the past week.
Oil prices advanced for a third consecutive session on Wednesday after President Donald Trump reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports, prompting retaliatory Iranian strikes on regional U.S. infrastructure. Brent crude rose 0.9% to $85.52 per barrel, while WTI gained 0.6% to reach $79.86 per barrel, building on one-month highs reached on Tuesday.
Goldman highlighted two-sided risks to its baseline Brent forecast of $80 for the fourth quarter of 2026 and $75 for 2027. Prices could surpass $110 in the fourth quarter if export recovery remains stalled, though a rapid de-escalation and production rebound could send prices down into the $60s by year-end.
The bank cautioned that further recovery in Gulf exports will likely be uneven due to ongoing risks to tankers and energy infrastructure. The reinstated U.S. blockade on Iranian ports alone could reduce Iranian exports by 1.5 million to 2 million barrels per day.
Overall, the net hit to Persian Gulf flows doubled over the past week to 13.4 million barrels per day, indicating that the global market will require additional adjustment mechanisms to absorb the deficit. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports, which dropped by 5 million barrels per day year-on-year in June, may have finally reached a floor.
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