The global oil market is expected to return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026, as Middle Eastern oil exports recover more quickly than global demand, despite ongoing attacks on shipping, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.
The agency also provided further details on the remaining volumes from the record release of emergency oil reserves pledged by its member countries in March. Around 71 million barrels are expected to become available by the end of February, including 15 million barrels of diesel aimed at easing supply constraints.
Global oil supply is projected to average 105 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, exceeding estimated demand by 1.7 million bpd, according to the IEA’s monthly report. This marks a shift from its previous outlook, which anticipated a supply shortfall during the period.
“The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran,” the agency said.
The latest assessment comes amid growing indications that Gulf oil producers are restoring exports disrupted by the conflict that began in late February. Producers have increasingly relied on alternative shipping methods, including so-called dark crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, where tankers disable their tracking systems to avoid potential attacks.
Meanwhile, the OPEC+ alliance, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, including Russia, produced 41.23 million barrels of crude oil per day in October, according to figures released by OPEC on Wednesday. This represented an increase of approximately 2.04 million bpd from September, bringing production to around 97% of its February pre-war level.
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