Gold Holds Steady as Investors Weigh Fed Rate Outlook and Middle East Tensions

Gold prices stabilized on Thursday as market participants weighed the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady against escalating Middle East conflicts that are driving up inflation concerns. Spot gold hovered around $4,062.30 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for August delivery edged up 0.7% to $4,060.60. The Fed kept its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with Chair Kevin Warsh reinforcing a strong commitment to curbing inflation—a stance that initially lifted spot gold by 2%.

However, surging oil prices following retaliatory U.S. strikes on Iranian targets have altered rate expectations. With Brent crude gaining ground, analysts note that persistent energy inflation increases the likelihood of further monetary tightening, creating headwinds for non-yielding bullion. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 65% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting, leaving investors focused on upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for further direction.

In broader precious metals markets, silver dipped slightly to $57.62 per ounce and platinum fell 0.4% to $1,605.20, while palladium gained 1.8% to reach $1,268.56. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported an uptick in unofficial gold imports into India following recent tariff hikes on precious metals.

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