Indonesian banks are expected to see a meaningful improvement in loan growth in 2026, with wholesale lending emerging as a key driver while consumer and microloan segments continue to lag.
Industry forecasts anticipate that average loan growth among major lenders will accelerate to about nine percent in 2026 compared with roughly eight percent in 2025. This improvement is underpinned by renewed demand for larger scale corporate and commercial loans, according to analysts at CGS International. Lending appetite from sectors such as healthcare minerals telecommunications and transport and logistics is contributing to a stronger pipeline of credit facilities.
Wholesale lending has stood out as the principal growth engine in recent quarters following a period of subdued credit expansion earlier in 2025. That slowdown was largely attributed to weaker macroeconomic conditions which encouraged corporate borrowers to adopt a cautious stance and delay new loan drawdowns. However as economic indicators show signs of bottoming out banks are reporting increased activity in investment related and commercial lending.
Despite this rebound in corporate segment lending persisting weaknesses in micro and consumer loan portfolios remain a challenge for many institutions. Consumer credit growth has been restrained by rising risk aversion and heightened scrutiny over non performing loans particularly in auto and mortgage portfolios. Banks have therefore maintained a selective approach to retail lending while prioritising lower risk corporate exposures.
The overall improvement in lending growth prospects also reflects a reduction in the proportion of at risk loans since the pandemic era. Data points to significant progress in cleaning up loan books at larger banks helping to bolster confidence in extending new credit.
Looking ahead banks are expected to sustain attention on high quality wholesale borrowers while monitoring credit risk developments in less resilient sectors. The 2026 outlook for Indonesian bank lending remains cautiously optimistic as broader economic activity strengthens and credit demand from strategic industries continues to gather momentum.
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