Nigeria risks slipping back into a debt crisis unless it fast-tracks fiscal reforms, boosts revenue generation, and improves transparency in debt reporting—key concerns raised at the Capital Market Academics of Nigeria (CMAN) Q4 2025 Virtual Symposium.
Held under the theme “Nigeria’s Rising Debt Profile and Sustainability Imperatives,” the event gathered prominent economists and financial experts, including Dr. Tope Fasua, Dr. Ibrahim Natagwandu, Prof. Bright Eregha, Dr. Musa Baba, and Prof. Bongo Adi. The session was chaired by Prof. Wilfred Iyiegbunwe, moderated by journalist Nancy Nnaji, and hosted by CMAN President Prof. Uche Uwaleke.
Prof. Iyiegbunwe opened the discussion by comparing Nigeria’s current fiscal pressures with the debt overhang addressed during the Obasanjo administration by former finance minister Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. He warned that the country may be “heading toward a similar situation,” pointing to weak revenue performance, rising refinancing costs, and the growing reliance on short-term borrowing.
Although Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains within acceptable global limits, speakers stressed that the nation’s extremely high debt service-to-revenue ratio is a major threat to sustainability. Exchange-rate instability, the fallout from fuel subsidy removal, and incomplete debt data—especially from off-budget and private-sector sources—further complicate the outlook.
Participants agreed that Nigeria’s core problem is not its debt size but its insufficient revenue base. With tax revenue at only 10% of GDP—far below the African average of 20%—panelists argued that debt pressures will persist without stronger domestic revenue mobilisation.
They welcomed government measures such as the Revenue Assurance and Optimisation (RevOp) programme, the central billing system, and the Federal Treasury Receipts System, which aim to curb leakages, streamline billing, and improve tax compliance.
Speakers also acknowledged improvements in fiscal management, including the discontinuation of Ways-and-Means overdrafts, more transparent oil production reporting, a rebalanced domestic–external debt structure, and the implementation of a more coherent Medium-Term Debt Strategy (MTDS). The MTDS aims to lengthen maturities, limit interest-rate risks, and channel borrowing into productive infrastructure.
However, they emphasised that broader structural reforms are needed to strengthen investor confidence, stabilise the economy, and reduce dependence on borrowing.
Experts also voiced concern over the lack of a consolidated national debt database, urging the government to include private-sector liabilities and extra-budgetary obligations in its reporting to prevent FX market shocks and enhance policy credibility.
Panelists recommended improving project appraisal systems to ensure debt-funded initiatives generate tangible economic returns; expanding Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) for infrastructure; and adopting innovative financing tools such as Sukuk and Green Bonds. They also called for a more business-friendly environment to unlock long-term capital and reduce operational costs.
The symposium concluded that Nigeria’s long-term fiscal sustainability depends on boosting productivity, diversifying exports beyond oil, and achieving consistent double-digit economic growth—critical steps toward reducing fiscal pressure and alleviating poverty.
In her closing remarks, Prof. Maryam Abdul praised participants for their contributions and urged ongoing collaboration as Nigeria confronts its evolving debt and revenue challenges.
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