Regardless of who wins the US elections in November, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is making a last-ditch effort to influence White House policy on Ukraine’s war with Russia. He is visiting the US this week to present a “victory plan” to his closest supporters.
During the visit, Zelenskiy will address the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday. The Ukrainian leader hopes to present the concept to President Joe Biden, as well as his potential successors, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Zelenskiy believes that Western support for the plan will significantly impact Moscow. This includes a psychological effect, which could pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin into negotiating a diplomatic end to the conflict.
Zelenskiy told reporters on Friday, “The Victory Plan envisages quick and concrete steps by our strategic partners – from now until the end of December.”
He went on to say that the plan will serve as a “bridge” to a second peace conference, which Kyiv hopes to host and to which Russia has been invited later this year.
Zelenskiy has stated that there is “no freezing of the war or any other manipulations that would simply postpone Russian aggression to another stage” as an option to peace.
Still, the two sides are very much at odds.
Zelenskiy wants Russia expelled from all of Ukrainian territory and Ukraine placed inside NATO and the EU, but he believes the latter goal may be attained diplomatically. Putin claims that in order for peace negotiations to start, Kyiv must give up its plans to join NATO and cede large portions of eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia.
Zelenskiy’s journey takes place during a dangerous time for Ukraine. Should Trump win the presidential election on November 5th, Washington’s heavily dependent U.S. military and financial support of Ukraine may undergo a reset.
In a TV discussion, Trump stated he would attempt to end the conflict before assuming office if he won. However, he would not declare whether he wanted Ukraine to defeat Russia. Harris charged that Trump wanted Kyiv to submit quickly and without conditions.
As the election draws closer, Kyiv demonstrated its strength by leading a high-risk invasion into Russia’s Kursk area on August 6. They quickly captured land, announced major drone strikes, and showcased new weapons, including a ballistic and “drone missile.”
Last Wednesday, a single attack resulted in a huge explosion at an ammunition dump in the Tver area of Russia.
The West claims that Russia has increased its use of drones and missiles and received Iranian ballistic missiles. It has also expanded its army, changed its nuclear policy, and intensified its offensive in the east.
‘BIDEN’S DECISION’
Biden is keen to talk about Zelenskiy’s “comprehensive strategy for success in this war” against Russia, according to U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.
Zelenskiy stated that “all these points depend on Biden’s decision, not Putin’s” and that his plan is composed of only a few points.
According to the leader, the actions included strengthening Ukraine’s armaments, assisting the economy, and securing Ukraine’s place in the global “security architecture.” The leader also mentioned the Kursk operation in the context of military decisions.
According to Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst for Ukraine, Zelenskiy may demand some form of proclamation of post-Biden continuation in support as well as longer-term promises of help through 2025.
“This will be a very important moment. Perhaps in some ways, in a political and military-political sense, it will be a pivotal moment,” he said.
The Ukrainian presence in the Kursk region of Russia may be used as a negotiating chip or as a safeguard against any external pressure to end the conflict as it is now being waged. However, Kyiv would have to defend the area against a far more powerful opponent despite severe manpower shortages.
Russia has been moving closer to Pokrovsk, the transportation center, in the meantime. Its seizure might disrupt Ukrainian logistics and create new avenues for assault.
By year’s end, Kovalenko added, Russia probably hoped to seize Pokrovsk.
“That would allow them… to strengthen pressure on the information front to catalyze thoughts of peace negotiations, naturally on their terms,” he stated.
CHALLENGES
Russia will be invited at the request of other countries, according to Ukraine, which plans to present a peace blueprint at a second international conference later this year. China and a large portion of the Global South deliberately avoided the first one, held in Switzerland in June, and deliberately avoided Moscow.
This month, Zelenskiy denounced as “destructive” a Chinese-Brazilian proposal that asked for “de-escalating the situation” and the return of direct talks without requiring Russia to retreat, claiming that his summit initiative is the only workable peace format.
With a significant portion of its energy production capability crippled by Russian strikes, Ukraine is facing its hardest winter yet in the two and a half year conflict.
Along with these growing economic difficulties, the government is planning to raise taxes for the first time since the war in order to close a $12.2 billion financing shortfall for the army this year.
Opinion surveys present conflicting images.
As of May 2024, over 32% of Ukrainians were amenable to some territorial compromises to end the conflict, up from 10% in May 2022, according to Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS, a pollster located in Kyiv. However, he noted that the majority of them had in mind a plan that would delay rather than completely abandon the liberation of the area.
According to him, securing solid security assurances, like NATO membership, is a prerequisite for any peace agreement.
“Despite negative trends, Ukrainians are still optimistic enough and believe for a better future – and hope this future will be in the European Union and with finally adequate security guarantees.”
Click here for more World news.