Black Friday — the post-Thanksgiving shopping spectacle known for early-morning queues and blockbuster bargains — is facing a contradictory outlook this year. Although retailers expect record footfall, shoppers appear increasingly hesitant to spend.
First gaining momentum in the late 1980s as eager consumers dashed into stores with holiday shopping lists in hand, Black Friday has long been a staple of America’s retail culture. But on Nov. 28 this year, according to projections from the National Retail Federation (NRF), the crowds packing malls and stores may not translate into strong sales.
That’s problematic for retailers, who rely on holiday spending to generate around one-third of annual profits. While 66% of shoppers say they are holding out for Thanksgiving weekend promotions — up from 59% in 2024 — average expected spending is set to dip to $890 from $902 last year. Inflationary pressures and softening labor market conditions continue to squeeze household budgets.
Recent U.S. retail sales have also underwhelmed, weighed down by higher prices. Tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump have driven retail costs up by nearly 5 percentage points, according to the Tax Foundation.
Shoppers Grow Picky — and Tech-Savvy
With unemployment around its highest level in four years and consumer sentiment at a seven-month low, households are delaying major purchases including homes, cars, vacations and other big-ticket items. In response, retailers are shifting their focus to smaller “affordable luxury” products — such as wallets, accents for handbags, and accessories like Crocs’ Jibbitz charms — said Nikki Baird of Aptos.
Spending continues to be disproportionately driven by wealthier Americans. The top 10% of earners, those making over $250,000 annually, contributed 48% of total consumer spending in the second quarter of 2025 — up significantly from the mid-1990s, according to Moody’s Analytics. Still, even some higher-income consumers report tightening their budgets.
Online, shoppers are prioritizing apparel and accessories, followed by toys, books, gaming products and entertainment, CivicScience data shows. Many are also integrating artificial intelligence into the shopping experience. A Bank of America survey found that half of all consumers — and 71% of Gen Z — intend to use AI tools for comparing prices, generating gift ideas, managing spending, or crafting personalized touches.
Meanwhile, the rise of e-commerce has stretched Black Friday promotions across weeks, diluting the day’s once-unique appeal.
“Black Friday is no longer a moment — it’s just a marker on the retail calendar,” said Andy Tsay, a professor at Santa Clara University’s Leavey School of Business.
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