Fitch Ratings projects that the persistently slow sales of new cars in Indonesia will suppress the profit growth of non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) in 2026. NBFIs are particularly vulnerable because new four-wheel (4W) financing contributes a significant 28% of their total receivables.
Fitch forecasts that 4W sales will remain below units in 2026. This demand weakness is compounded by rising vehicle prices and the scheduled removal of electric vehicle (EV) purchase incentives. Furthermore, financiers themselves have a limited appetite for rapidly increasing auto-lending due to worries about asset quality.
In response to these challenges, NBFIs are expected to diversify their business in 2026 by concentrating more on second-hand 4W, two-wheel (2W), and multi-purpose financing. For context, the 2W and used 4W segments currently account for 16% and 17% of NBFI sales, respectively, and were key to supporting 8% industry receivable growth in 2024. Captive financiers like PT Astra Sedaya Finance and PT Toyota Astra Financial Services are expected to maintain their core focus on new 4W sales.
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