India and Pakistan have stepped back from the brink of all-out war. The U.S. nudged them. Analysts said that New Delhi’s aspirations as a global diplomatic power now face a key test. This is after President Donald Trump offered to mediate on the dispute over Kashmir.
India’s rapid rise as the world’s fifth-largest economy has boosted its confidence. This has also increased its clout on the world stage. India has played an important role in addressing regional crises such as Sri Lanka’s economic collapse and the Myanmar earthquake.
The conflict with Pakistan over Kashmir touched a sensitive nerve in Indian politics. The conflict flared up recently with exchanges of missiles, drones, and air strikes. These exchanges killed at least 66 people.
How India navigates this diplomatically will be key. India must court favor with Trump over issues like trade, while asserting its own interests in the Kashmir conflict. Domestic politics will largely determine this and could determine the future prospects for conflict in Kashmir.
Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst based in Washington, said, “India … is likely not keen on the broader talks (that the ceasefire) calls for. Upholding it will pose challenges.”
In a sign of just how fragile the truce remains, the two governments accused each other of serious violations late on Saturday.
Kugelman noted that the ceasefire was “cobbled together hastily” when tensions were at their peak.
Trump said on Sunday that, following the ceasefire, “I am going to increase trade, substantially, with both of these great nations”.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not commented publicly on the conflict since it began.
India considers Kashmir an integral part of its territory. It is not open for negotiation, least of all through a third-party mediator. India and Pakistan both rule the scenic Himalayan region in part. They claim it in full and have fought two wars and numerous other conflicts over it. India says a Pakistan-backed insurgency is the cause. Pakistan denies it backs insurgency.
Brahma Chellaney, an Indian defense analyst, said, “By agreeing to abort under U.S. persuasion … just three days of military operations, India is drawing international attention to the Kashmir dispute, not to Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism that triggered the crisis.”
For decades after the two countries separated in 1947, the West largely viewed India and Pakistan similarly. They fought regularly over Kashmir. This changed in recent years, partly due to India’s economic rise while Pakistan’s economy languished. Pakistan’s economy is less than one-10th India’s size.
Trump proposed to work towards a solution to the Kashmir problem. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared that India and Pakistan would start talks on their broader issues at a neutral site. This has irked many Indians.
Pakistan has repeatedly thanked Trump for his offer on Kashmir. India has not acknowledged any role played by a third party in the ceasefire. India says the two sides agreed to it themselves.
Analysts and Indian opposition parties are questioning whether New Delhi met its strategic objectives. It launched missiles into Pakistan last Wednesday. India said this retaliated for an attack last month on tourists in Kashmir that killed 26 men. It blamed the attack on Pakistan. Islamabad denied the charge.
Modi showed a much higher appetite for risk than his predecessors. He launched missiles deep into Pakistan. The sudden ceasefire exposed him to rare criticism at home.
Swapan Dasgupta, a former lawmaker from Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, said the ceasefire had not gone down well in India. He stated this was partly because “Trump suddenly appeared out of nowhere and pronounced his verdict”.
The main opposition Congress party demanded an explanation from the government. It demanded this on the “ceasefire announcements made from Washington, D.C.”
Congress spokesperson Jairam Ramesh asked, “Have we opened the doors to third-party mediation?”
While the fighting has stopped, a number of flashpoints remain in the relationship. These will test India’s resolve and may tempt it to adopt a hard-line stance.
Diplomats and government officials in Pakistan said the top issue for Pakistan would be the Indus Waters Treaty. India suspended the treaty last month. It is a vital source of water for many of Pakistan’s farms and hydropower plants.
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, a former foreign minister and currently chairman of the People’s Party of Pakistan, which supports the government, said, “Pakistan would not have agreed (to a ceasefire) without U.S. guarantees of a broader dialogue.”
Moeed Yusuf, former Pakistan National Security Advisor, said a broad agreement would be needed to break the cycle of brinksmanship over Kashmir. He stated, “Because the underlying issues remain, and every six months, one year, two years, three years, something like this happens and then you are back at the brink of war in a nuclear environment.”
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