German-Pakistani-Moroccan Nadir Aslam had intended to cast a Green ballot in this week’s European Parliament elections. Rather, he will endorse Mera25, a newly formed socialist party that is unambiguously pro-Palestinian.
Aslam, 33, told Reuters that he “destroyed” his support for the ecological party, a part of Germany’s ruling coalition. After hearing a speech last November by a Green leader who doubled down on German support for Israel even as the number of deaths in Gaza approached 9,000, he decided to withdraw his support.
This shift in support is being felt throughout Europe and poses a new threat to mainstream political parties. Moreover, their goal of furthering European integration is already being challenged by the far-right. This threat comes from the left this time.
Left-leaning people detect a tendency among Muslim communities in the EU. Moreover, they perceive a double standard in Europe’s criticism of the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel and its inaction against Israel’s military assault on Gaza, which has resulted in the deaths of over 36,000 Palestinians.
Sociologist Samira Azabar of Radboud University in the Netherlands stated, “We have a rise in radical right and radical left parties, (which) reshape the policy landscape in Europe, the balance of power of several parties.”
According to her, this might influence the bloc’s stance on Israel and lead to legislation giving national leaders more authority to make decisions. The governments of Slovenia and Spain, two EU members, have recognized a Palestinian state, subject to parliamentary ratification.
POLARISATION
According to surveys, the radical left has been receiving more votes from minorities. Meanwhile, mainstream parties have been moving to the right on topics like immigration and cultural values, despite the far-right’s recent surge in popularity.
According to Ipsos polling conducted last month, the far-right is expected to gain the most members in the June 6–9 elections. Meanwhile, the Left will gain six more seats in the EU assembly at the expense of the Social Democrat, Green, and Renew Europe blocs.
Historian Blandine Chelini-Pont of Aix-Marseille University notes that the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) in France has focused its campaign on a pro-Palestinian stance. This strategy aims to win over radical-left and Muslim supporters.
Unlike other left-wing organizations, it does not label Hamas a terrorist organization. Instead, it calls for an arms embargo, sanctions against Israel, and the establishment of a Palestinian state. In France, the percentage of Muslim voters who favor it is 44%, while the overall voter share is 8%.
Some may argue that we are speaking about the electorate, but to whom are we addressing? Lawmaker Sebastien Delogu of the LFI told Reuters, “These are citizens of this country who do not have a racist vision of society.”
While they disagree with LFI’s position on Hamas, the socialists in France also want to see a Palestinian state recognized.
“LFI has a relationship with violence that is not okay,” front-runner Raphael Glucksmann, a socialist, told Reuters. According to Glucksmann, his decision to distance himself from LFI is partly to blame for his ascent to third place in the polls (16%).
HISTORICAL ELEMENTS
The German Greens and Social Democrats, two mainstream parties that have remained steadfastly supportive of Israel because of Germany’s historical responsibility for the Holocaust, are losing ground. Meanwhile, pro-Palestinian startup groups are gaining traction.
Apart from the leftist Mera25, other pro-Palestinian startups include the eurosceptic party BSW, which advocates for anti-immigration policies and demands an arms embargo on Israel. Additionally, socially conservative organizations like DAVA and BIG also align with pro-Palestinian sentiments.
Compared to the German electorate as a whole, supporters of BSW, which is polling at 7%, are 50% more likely to recognize a Palestinian state.
The government’s endorsement of a Palestinian state strengthens support for the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the far-left Sumar. These two parties are in the ruling coalition in Spain, where tensions with Israel stretch back to the Franco regime.
Professor David Hernandez of the Complutense University of Madrid remarked, “The Palestinian issue has become central to the political debate in Spain.”
GETTING THE VOTE FROM THE MINORITY
Voter turnout might be important.
According to Azabar from Radboud University, the Gaza war may be a factor this time around. He highlighted that turnout in EU elections was frequently lower among ethnic minorities than for the broader public.
Ethnic minority votes have historically been impacted by foreign policy issues. Teyfik Özcan, the chairman of DAVA, a new party aimed at winning over Turkish diaspora voters, stated that Germany’s Social Democrats lost about 100,000 Turkish voters in 2016. This loss occurred as a result of acknowledging the Armenian genocide during World War I.
Former SPD member Özcan claimed his party provided the hitherto nonexistent option of a protest vote.
“Germans have the opportunity to say, ‘Okay, I’m voting for the (far-right) AfD in protest.’ Muslims cannot do that,” he told Reuters.
According to a survey conducted in December by the University of Duisberg-Essen’s Institute of Political Science, one in three German Muslims felt that no political party adequately represented their interests.
Voters in France are also struck by a fresh perception of political representation.
Moreover, LFI has nominated Rima Hassan, a French-Palestinian lawyer who actively participates in social media, attends rallies, and presses the EU to revoke its association agreement with Israel, as a candidate.
The 34-year-old French-Moroccan chef Chama Tahiri Ivorra declared that she will cast her ballot this time even though she had never done it before.
“Voting for Rima is an act of resistance,” she stated. “I don’t know all the points on LFI’s programme but what she and their other members say about Palestine is just.”
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