On Wednesday, three European nations broke with their main EU allies and chose to recognize a Palestinian state. This action further isolated Israel from the rest of the world, which was already feeling the brunt of the conflict in Gaza.
In the demolished Gaza Strip and the occupied West Bank, the action—which an Israeli government spokesman called “obscene”—will not significantly affect daily life. The financially constrained Palestinian Authority in the West Bank is forced by Israel to struggle even to pay its own civil personnel.
However, it comes after a slow but steady accumulation of issues, starting with Washington’s threats to withhold weapons if the war in Gaza goes on and its sanctions against violent settlers. It also includes charges of genocide filed with the International Court of Justice and a potential International Criminal Court arrest warrant for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Since taking office at the end of 2022 and forming a coalition of far-right religious nationalist parties, Netanyahu has significantly bolstered his opposition to the so-called two-state solution. He has long opposed it.
His government continues to harbor strong misgivings toward the Palestinian Authority, which was established under the Oslo interim peace accords thirty years ago. It accuses the Authority of hostile acts ranging from supporting antisemitism in textbooks to providing financial support to the families of armed militants murdered by Israeli forces.
Speaking for himself, Netanyahu called the three nations’ decision “a reward for terrorism” and declared that a Palestinian state will “try to repeat the massacre of Oct. 7 again and again.”
The remark highlighted the acrimonious nature of the situation surrounding the Gaza War. It also emphasized the remote chances of a political settlement based on an independent Palestinian state coexisting with Israel, with peace negotiations seemingly impermanently deadlocked.
The foreign ministry called the Norwegian, Irish, and Spanish ambassadors in Israel to view video footage of the attack on Israel on October 7 by gunmen commanded by Hamas. It also called back its diplomats from Oslo, Madrid, and Dublin.
At the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Washington, Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East analyst, described the three nations’ action as “diplomatically bold but emotionally tone deaf and unproductive.”
“For Israelis it will increase paranoia, reinforcing Netanyahu’s argument that Israelis stand alone,” she stated. “For Palestinians, it falsely raises expectations, without defining a pathway toward realizing legitimate national dreams.”
PRICE OVER LONG TERM
Netanyahu, facing difficulties in uniting a divided wartime alliance and commonly held accountable in Israel for the October 7 catastrophe, might find some respite in Wednesday’s announcement. It bolsters his image of resistance against an adversarial external environment.
Israeli international relations expert Yonatan Freeman stated, “This really strengthens the narrative which we have been hearing since Day One of this war that in the end, we can only depend on ourselves.” “And I think that this can even assist the Israeli government’s explanation and description of what it’s doing in this war.”
Nonetheless, impeding efforts towards a Palestinian state may result in Israel paying a higher price in the long run. This begins with the highly valued objective of repairing relations with Saudi Arabia, which was Netanyahu’s principal foreign policy objective prior to the attack.
In an appearance before a Senate committee on Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that stability in Gaza and a “credible pathway” towards a Palestinian state would be necessary conditions. He emphasized these as prerequisites for reaching a deal with Saudi Arabia.
“And it may well be…that, in this moment, Israel is not able or willing to proceed down that pathway,” he said.
Gunmen led by Hamas tore through neighborhoods in the Gaza Strip on October 7, murdering over 1,200 people and kidnapping about 250 more. Israelis still find the photos from that day extremely painful.
The images of suffering in Gaza, where the Israeli response has resulted in the death of over 35,000 Palestinians and the destruction of much of the densely populated enclave, have contributed to the escalating protest movement on American college campuses and in the streets of European cities. These images are stirring reactions outside of Israel.
The frequently irate demonstrations have come at an ever-greater political cost to the governments of the United States and other historically pro-Israel nations like Germany.
Both nations argue that negotiations, not just unilateral pronouncements, should lead to the recognition of a Palestinian state. France and Britain, two other prominent European nations, rejected inclusion in the trio that did so.
Alon Liel, a critic of Netanyahu’s administration and a former director general of Israel’s foreign ministry, found the wider context more significant. This context included cases against Israel and its leaders at the international tribunals in The Hague.
“If it’s part of a wider move that’s triggering momentum and part of the ICC, ICJ moves, sanctions on settlers and so on, there’s a chance that Israel will notice that the world exists,” he stated.
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