On Thursday, a report revealed that deadly wildfires, similar to those devastating central Chile this month and claiming at least 133 lives, will increasingly occur in the South American country. This trend is driven by climate change, which is causing global temperatures to rise and intensifying dry conditions. The report underscores the growing threat of wildfires in Chile due to the changing climate.
Chile experienced its deadliest natural disaster since the 2010 earthquake, which claimed approximately 500 lives, with the fires. High temperatures and strong winds accelerated the fires’ spread into populated areas near Vina del Mar and Valparaiso.
The international group of scientists, World Weather Attribution, released a report on the effects of climate change on extreme weather events. They examined the rise in conditions that contribute to fires, including temperature, wind speed, and atmospheric moisture. The analysis was based on measurements using the Hot Dry Windy Index (HDWI).
The report indicates that neither global warming nor the El Nino climate phenomenon played a role in the recent rise in HDWI during the fires. Temperatures in Chile’s coastal region are cooling, while inland temperatures are increasing. This suggests a complex and localized pattern contributing to the heightened risk.
However, as global warming progresses, this will change, according to scientists.
“We expect a lot of these fires to happen in the future,” Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute and study co-author, told reporters.
In the present global context, with a warming of 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial times, scientists predict a four-day period with an HDWI similar to recent fires. They anticipate such an occurrence to happen once every 30 years. This underscores the escalating impact of climate change on fire-prone conditions.
“However, if warming reaches 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), it’s likely that fire-prone weather will become more intense around Vina del Mar and Valparaiso,” said Tomas Carrasco, a University of Chile researcher and co-author of the study.
UN findings indicate a projected temperature rise of 2.9 degrees Celsius (5.2 degrees Fahrenheit) this century based on current climate pledges.
The report’s authors found that the deadly nature of the fires was significantly influenced by urban growth and land use changes.
Mauricio Santos from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre in Colombia asserts that over decades, the expansion of pine and eucalyptus tree plantations has actively destroyed natural firebreak barriers. Simultaneously, urban areas persist in encroaching on forests, exacerbating the risk of wildfires. The consequences of these developments are a growing concern for both environmental and community well-being.
“We found that the most devastating fires happened in areas with significant land-use changes and where urban planning was inadequate,” Santos said, adding that better warning systems, evacuation planning and fire-proofing systems are needed.
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