On Thursday, U.S. President Joe Biden essentially issued an ultimatum to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Biden stated that Israel must either safeguard Gaza’s civilian population and international humanitarian workers or face consequences, potentially including Washington withholding its support for Israel’s military campaign against Hamas militants.
Following an Israeli attack that killed seven World Central Kitchen (WCK) relief workers and incited international indignation, the letter from Biden arrived. Months prior, the United States demanded that Israel alter its war methods that have resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians. The ultimatum underscores the urgency for Netanyahu to protect Gaza civilians, or face consequences.
Israel concedes that the strike was erroneous.
The White House remained reticent about the precise actions it expected Netanyahu to take or what it would do in the event that he did not. However, experts claimed that the underlying threat was to reduce American support at the UN or to halt weaponry deliveries to Israel.
Referring to Biden’s statement from last month that he and Netanyahu were headed for such a turning point, “this is as close to a ‘come to Jesus’ moment as you can get,” said analyst Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
Dennis Ross, a veteran U.S. diplomat now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said: “The president, in effect, is saying meet these humanitarian needs or I will have no choice but to condition (military) assistance.”
Up for reelection in November, Biden faces the challenge of balancing the concerns of pro-Israel independent voters with the demands from progressive Democrats. Progressives are appalled at the number of Palestinian civilian deaths and urge Biden to rein in Netanyahu. So far, he has refused to impose restrictions on the transfer of weapons.
After Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, killing 1,200 people, according to Israeli estimates, the war broke out. Israel invaded the region, destroying much of its densely populated area and uprooting the majority of its 2.3 million inhabitants.
The health ministry in Gaza, run by Hamas, reports that over 33,000 Palestinians have passed away. The majority of them are women and children. Israel charges Hamas with utilizing people as human shields.
Biden urged Israel “to announce and implement a series of specific, concrete, and measurable steps to address civilian harm, humanitarian suffering, and the safety of aid workers,” according to the White House, which described their request. He made it clear that our evaluation of Israel’s prompt action on these actions will dictate U.S. policy regarding Gaza,” the White House stated in a statement.
More direct was U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
“Look, I’ll just say this: if we don’t see the changes that we need to see, there will be changes in our policy.”
Mere hours after the call, the Israeli administration opened the Ashdod port and the Erez gate into northern Gaza on Thursday night. Additionally, they increased humanitarian delivery from Jordan, among other measures, to enhance relief flows to Gaza. It was unclear if the actions would be sufficient to meet American demands.
TURNING POINT
The horrific Israeli attack on the employees of famous chef Jose Andres’ WCK charity organization occurred on Monday. This event marked a turning point for Biden, an avid backer of Israel.
At the same time, the Biden administration escalated pressure on Israel, urging consideration of alternatives to a threatened ground offensive in southern Gaza’s city of Rafah. This city represents the last relatively secure refuge for civilians within the coastal enclave.
Under conditions of anonymity, a source familiar with the discussions disclosed that the 30-minute conversation unfolded with occasional heated exchanges. Biden conveyed his concerns while Netanyahu defended his strategy for Gaza. Despite the tensions, both leaders engaged in dialogue, addressing their respective perspectives.
During the discussion, a senior White House official described it as “very direct, very straightforward.” Blinken, Vice President Kamala Harris, and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan were all present.
As to what the United States expects, the official said: “We need a comprehensive plan on them doing a much better job here. They can’t be killing humanitarian aid workers and civilians.”
Biden may have finally reached his limit, despite the fact that he has long avoided reducing US assistance for Israel.
Mike Singh, a former National Security Council official on the Middle East, said, “There was always going to be a point at which the Biden administration felt that the domestic and international cost of supporting Israel’s campaign in Gaza outweighed the benefit of what Israel was able to achieve on the ground.”
“What is remarkable is not that this is happening but that it took so long.”
Singh, currently with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, stated that if Israel failed to meet Biden’s demands, the United States would likely negotiate a U.N. Security Council resolution similar to the one that resolved the Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006.
“Placing conditions on arms transfers is more fraught politically, would likely face stiff opposition on (Capitol) Hill, and could leave Israel vulnerable to attack by Hezbollah or other Iranian proxies,” he stated.
However, last month, after declaring that a Rafah invasion would be a “red line,” Biden may have hinted at his thoughts when he declared that he would never cut off “all weapons so that they don’t have the Iron Dome (missile defense system) to protect them.”
While he didn’t explicitly state it, rumors circulated that he might impose restrictions on armament deliveries to Israel, which heavily relies on American weaponry, if he committed to supplying offensive weapons.
Jonathan Panikoff, former deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East, stated that Biden would not take a dramatic step to sever U.S.-Israeli connections. Furthermore, this includes refusing to relinquish expensive weaponry or completely abandoning Israel at the U.N.
However, he might impose restrictions on more modest military hardware and take additional action against radical Jewish settlers who are attacking Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.
“Biden’s frustration with how the war is being conducted, and with Prime Minister Netanyahu himself, has reached an apex,” Panikoff stated.
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