Global banks are expected to stay resilient even as financial markets face potential turbulence from geopolitical tensions and tariff-related shocks, according to S&P Global Ratings.
Roughly 85% of the banks the agency rates carry a stable outlook. “Banks are operating in volatile times,” said S&P credit analyst Emmanuel Volland, noting that major policy moves and regional conflicts could quickly unsettle markets and reshape economic conditions.
Risks include worsening conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as a stronger-than-expected impact of tariff shocks on both the real economy and financial markets.
Despite these pressures, banks have generally managed challenging operating environments well over the past five years, S&P said.
“These evolving risks will test some banks’ business models and risk controls, while creating openings for others,” Volland added. He expects credit performance among banks to diverge further over time. For now, however, strong fundamentals — from asset quality and profitability to funding — along with supportive market conditions, continue to bolster the sector.
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