Fresh disruptions to Persian Gulf crude exports are likely to maintain upward pressure on oil prices in the short term, according to a Goldman Sachs note released on Tuesday. The bank cautioned that even if geopolitical tensions ease, the next phase of export recovery could be slower and more uncertain than the initial rebound.
According to Goldman Sachs, Gulf exports had recovered to over 80% of pre-conflict levels following a June U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. However, recent tanker strikes in the Strait of Hormuz drove flows back down to under 50%—roughly 11 million barrels per day (bpd)—over the past week.
Crude prices advanced for a third consecutive session on Wednesday after President Donald Trump reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports, prompting retaliatory Iranian strikes on regional U.S. infrastructure. Brent crude gained 0.9% to reach $85.52 per barrel by 0421 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 0.6% to $79.86 per barrel, after both benchmarks reached one-month highs on Tuesday.
Goldman noted significant two-sided risks to its current Brent price projections of $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026 and $75 for 2027. If the recovery in Gulf exports remains stalled, Brent prices could top $110 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year. Conversely, if regional conflicts de-escalate and production rebounds faster than anticipated, prices could drop into the $60s by year-end.
The bank warned that future export gains will likely be uneven due to ongoing threats against tankers and energy infrastructure, estimating that the renewed U.S. blockade of Iranian ports could reduce Iran’s exports by 1.5 million to 2 million bpd. Goldman also stated that the estimated net loss to Persian Gulf flows doubled over the past week to 13.4 million bpd, signaling a need for additional market adjustment mechanisms to absorb the shock. On the demand side, the bank indicated that China’s crude imports, which dropped by 5 million bpd year-on-year in June, may have finally hit bottom.
Click here for more on Business
