A United States official confirmed on Monday that U.S. President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and the speaker of Iran’s parliament—who leads the Iranian negotiating team—have already signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war in the Gulf. Although Tehran did not immediately respond to reports of the signing, earlier indications from both nations suggested the official signing ceremony would take place this Friday in Geneva.
The immediate durability of the deal remains uncertain. Israel, which entered the conflict alongside the U.S. in February, was excluded from the peace talks and launched a drone strike on a vehicle in southern Lebanon shortly after the announcement. This presents a direct challenge to the agreement, as Iran has maintained that a total cessation of hostilities in Lebanon is a mandatory condition of the pact.
While the exact conditions of the hard-won agreement have not been published, the anonymous U.S. official noted they should be disclosed within the next 24 to 48 hours. In response to the geopolitical breakthrough, global stock markets reached record highs and oil prices plummeted on expectations of restored energy supplies. Trump declared on Monday that maritime traffic had already resumed through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, though the U.S. military clarified to shipping companies that the blockade on Iranian ports has not yet been lifted.
The preliminary framework establishes a 60-day negotiation window backed by a ceasefire and the reopening of the vital strait. During this two-month period, long-term issues like Iran’s nuclear program will be negotiated. Vice President Vance indicated that if Iran follows through on surrendering its nuclear materials, the final settlement could grant Tehran access to a $300 billion reconstruction fund financed by neighboring Gulf Arab states.
However, the survival of the pact deeply depends on the situation in Lebanon, where Israel has been fighting Hezbollah since the group opened fire in support of Tehran on March 2. The subsequent Israeli air and ground campaign has displaced an estimated 1.2 million people. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that the U.S. is responsible for enforcing the framework, which he stresses requires an end to all Israeli actions in Lebanon. Hezbollah welcomed the deal, viewing Lebanon’s inclusion as proof of Iran’s commitment to protecting Lebanese rights.
In contrast, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has kept quiet publicly, but internal sentiment remains highly critical. A senior Israeli official privately called the agreement “terrible for Israel,” stating this view is shared across the administration. Defense Minister Israel Katz affirmed that Israeli forces plan to stay in occupied sections of southern Lebanon indefinitely to neutralize security threats.
For the United States, reopening the Strait of Hormuz offers significant political relief for President Trump. The conflict-driven energy crisis had driven up domestic gasoline prices and weighed heavily on his political standing, prompting him to celebrate the return of global oil shipping on social media.
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