Egypt’s headline inflation likely rose for the second straight month in November, reaching an annual 13.1% as increases in tobacco, alcohol, and transport costs pushed prices higher, according to a Reuters poll.
The median forecast from 14 analysts pointed to a rise from October’s 12.5%, which had marked the end of a four-month slowdown in inflation.
Four analysts also projected core inflation—which excludes volatile food and fuel items—would edge up to 12.4% in November from 12.1% in October. The survey was conducted between December 1 and 8.
Goldman Sachs, which estimated headline inflation at 12.5%, said it expected higher alcohol and tobacco prices and recent transport price hikes to drive the increase, partly offset by seasonal softness in food inflation.
Money supply growth has also contributed to price pressures, with M2 expanding 21.68% year-on-year in October, central bank data showed.
Annual inflation has dropped sharply from its record 38% in September 2023, helped by the $8 billion IMF support package secured in March 2024.
With inflation cooling earlier in the year, the Central Bank of Egypt cut its overnight lending rate by 100 basis points in October after a 200-point cut in August.
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